Finance Monthly - CFO Awards 2022

markets and inflation through the 2010s. The first was monetary experimentation keeping interest rates low to drive economic recovery following the global financial crash of 2008. But we didn’t get an economic boom. What we got was galloping financial asset inflation as bond prices and stock prices went stratospheric. That distortion enflamed market exuberance and euphoria, triggering the stock market bubbles in Big Tech, disruptive tech and the stupidities of meme stocks, crypto and NFTs. At the same time, we had the second factor, a de-facto cap on global inflation: China. The Middle Kingdom became the “cheapest to deliver” manufacturer exporting deflation around the globe, and all supply chains led back to it. COVID and the building of a geopolitical stag fight between China and the USA profoundly changed that reality. It unleashed supply chain price instability as geopolitics changed and shut off the deflation spigot. The era of cheap money fuelling markets and downward pressure on prices is over. Make sure you understand that there is a new reality of real inflation and expensive money before figuring out what 2023 looks like. Although the indications are for inflation to moderate, I reckon it will prove stubbornly high and challenging to de-fumigate from Western economies. Let’s scribble down some possible scenarios and predictions for 2023. My starting point would be to worry about further shocks. What about another exogenous Finance Monthly. Front Cover Feature 43

RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy Mjk3Mzkz