shock? Could COVID in China overwhelming the medical system create a judder moment triggering another China shutdown, making the Government look weak, causing the possibility of a deeper global recession, and the possibility of President Xi deciding to deflect by going outward bound on Taiwan? Could the Bird Flu that’s ravaged Christmas Turkey’s jump species lead to a second major pandemic? What are the chances Central Banks decide to go soft again and turn market accommodating? Slashing rates to avoid a market meltdown and a deep recession? These are all known unknowns, and none are binary. There are numerous others we could discuss, including political instability across the west, the dollar, and the great retirement causing a demographic crisis in the jobs market, and thus the economics of every firm that hires staff! Equally, there are a host of entirely unpredictable events that could occur. Dreaming up storyboards for disaster movies is fun but scary: the big West Coast earthquake, a super-volcano triggering a mini-ice-age, a meteor strike, a solar flare, an unwater landslide caused by ocean warming causing a tsunami to hit Europe’s Atlantic and North Sea Coasts, a storm surge in the North Sea flooding London and the Netherlands. There is any number of unimaginable events. Or it may be something financial. A big bank discovers its bust on the back of a housing crisis, a major hedge fund evaporating in a slew of downright stupid trades, or a pension fund exploding in a leverage/liquidity event. Don’t discount anything upsetting our cosy little apple cart of expectations. I think it is 100% likely the remaining cryptocurrency exchanges will collapse in a welter of liquidity events but if you were “My starting point would be to worry about further shocks.” Front Cover Feature 44 Finance Monthly.